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CONTANGO Report Contango Report: Brent Backwardation Favors BNO Over USO, NatGas Moves Back Into Contango- Written by Sumit Roy |
- July 30, 2012
Contango Report: Brent Backwardation Favors BNO Over USO, NatGas Moves Back Into Contango
- Details
loading charts...4.08%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
3.98%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
11.04%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: WTI is in contango through most of the one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: The front-month roll rose slightly to 4.08 percent annualized from 3.98 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango
-11.27%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-8.56%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
2.52%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Brent's backwardation widened last week. Rolling front-month Brent contracts now yields 11.27 percent annualized, and the benchmark remains the preferred option for bullish exposure to crude oil.
Rival West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remains in contango as it has been for the vast majority of the year amid infrastructure bottlenecks in the U.S. Midwest. Thus, the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), which holds front-month Brent contracts, is seen as superior to the United States Oil Fund (USO), which holds front-month WTI contracts.
ROLL COSTS: Investors net 11.27 percent annualized from rolling front-month Brent contracts.
BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation
5.05%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-4.56%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
12.15%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Natural gas returned to contango, but roll costs are relatively insignificant.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 5.05 percent annualized to roll front-month natural gas contracts.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango
0.67%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.99%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
1.23%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Gold is in mild contango.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.67 percent annualized to roll front-month gold contracts, down from a cost of 0.99 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango
1.38%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.12%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
1.51%
Contract Months:
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Silver is in mild contango throughout most of the forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 1.38 percent annualized to roll front-month silver contracts, down from 1.12 percent.
1.66%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-4.04%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
0.66%
Contract Months:
Jan Apr Jul Oct
CONTANGO WATCH: Platinum is in mild contango at the front end of the forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 1.66 percent annualized to roll front-month platinum contracts, down from a net of 4.04 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango
2.79%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.70%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
1.92%
Contract Months:
Mar Jun Sep Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Palladium is in contango at the very front end of the curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 2.79 percent annualized to roll front-month palladium contracts, up from 0.70 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango
0.88%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.32%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
-1.01%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Copper is in mild contango across the one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.88 percent annualized to roll front-month copper contracts, up from 0.32 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango
11.12%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
9.47%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
4.96%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: The aluminum forward curve is in steady contango.
ROLL COSTS: Front-month annualized roll costs moved up to 11.12 percent from 9.47 percent the week before.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango
1.30%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.98%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
4.63%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Zinc is in mild contango across the one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 1.3 percent annualized to roll front-month zinc contracts, up from a cost of 0.98 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango
2.53%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
2.56%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
3.38%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Lead is in contango across the one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 2.53 percent annualized to roll front-month lead contracts, down slightly from 2.56 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango
1.45%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.29%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
1.78%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Nickel is in mild contango throughout the forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: Roll costs for nickel edged up to 1.45 percent from 1.29 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango
0.33%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.19%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
0.71%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: The tin forward curve is in mild contango throughout the one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.33 percent annualized to roll front-month tin contracts, up from 0.19 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango
-2.18%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-13.48%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
8.71%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Corn's backwardation at the front end of the curve narrowed last week.
ROLL COSTS: Investors net 2.18 percent annualized from rolling front-month corn contracts, down from a net of 13.48 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation
5.92%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
3.07%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
17.80%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Wheat's contango widened last week.
ROLL COSTS: Wheat's annualized front-month roll costs rose to 5.92 percent from 3.07 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango
-31.88%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-28.55%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
-26.12%
Contract Months:
Jan Mar May Jul Aug Sep Nov
CONTANGO WATCH: Soybeans' backwardation widened as prices remained near record highs last week.
ROLL COSTS: Investors net 31.88 percent annualized from rolling front-month soybeans contracts, up from 28.55 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Steep Backwardation
32.07%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
28.88%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
33.27%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: The live cattle curve is in contango across most of the one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 32.07 percent annualized to roll front-month live cattle contracts, up from a cost of 28.88 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Steep Contango
-61.14%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-63.29%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
-42.84%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: The front half of the lean hogs forward curve is in steep backwardation.
ROLL COSTS: Investors net 61.14 percent annualized from rolling front-month lean hogs contracts, down slightly from a net of 63.29 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Steep Backwardation to Contango
6.83%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
5.17%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
7.69%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Coffee is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: Annualized front-month roll costs rose to 6.83 percent, up from 5.17 percent.
1.89%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
2.70%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
3.27%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Cocoa is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 1.89 percent to roll front-month cocoa contracts, down from a cost of 1.89 percent.
2.98%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.40%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
6.80%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Oct
CONTANGO WATCH: Sugar is in contango at the front end of the curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 2.98 percent annualized to roll front-month sugar contracts, up from a cost of 0.40 percent.
5.93%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
9.14%
Historical 07/27 5YR Annualized Roll
5.19%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Oct Dec
CONTANGO WATCH: Cotton is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 5.93 percent annualized to roll front-month cotton contracts, down from a cost of 9.14 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango
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