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- Written by Sumit Roy |
- March 21, 2011
Contango Report: Wheat's Contango Grows Significantly
- Details
Energy

CONTANGO WATCH: The one-year WTI Crude Oil forward curve flattened on the front end and moved into backwardation on the back end—a favorable shift for investors.
ROLL COSTS: Front-month roll costs decreased to their lowest level in weeks in response to the curve's shift, with investors now paying the equivalent of less than 1 percent per month.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

CONTANGO WATCH: This week, the Brent oil forward curve moved back into steady backwardation.
ROLL COSTS: Investors net almost 2 percent annualized by rolling front-month Brent contracts.
BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation

CONTANGO WATCH: As natural gas prices rallied last week, the Henry Hub forward curve steepened.
ROLL COSTS: Annualized roll costs may have increased, but they remain modest both on a historical basis and relative to gas' volatility. The roll steepens when you move into the winter months, however.
BOTTOM LINE: Steepening Contango
Precious Metals

CONTANGO WATCH: The gold curve remains well-behaved in modest contango.
ROLL COSTS: Annualized front-month roll costs are almost 1.5 percent, in the middle of gold's 52-week range.
BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

CONTANGO WATCH: The silver forward curve steepened notably on the very front end.
ROLL COSTS: Annualized roll costs jumped to just short of 3.75 percent, which is five times last week's level.
BOTTOM LINE: Choppy Contango

CONTANGO WATCH: The platinum forward curve remains in steady contango over the next year.
ROLL COSTS: Investors pay about 2.5 percent annualized to roll their front-month platinum contracts.
BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

CONTANGO WATCH: The March-June palladium spread remains in backwardation, but only just barely.
ROLL COSTS: Investors still gain by rolling front-month palladium contracts, but by much less than they did last week.
BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation to Contango
Industrial Metals

CONTANGO WATCH: The copper forward curve flattened this week, showing no noticeable contango evident in the next three contracts.
ROLL COSTS: Front-month roll costs decreased to just 0.28 percent from almost 1 percent last week.
BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango to Backwardation

CONTANGO WATCH: The aluminum forward curve remains in steady, consistent contango.
ROLL COSTS: Front-month roll costs were flat for a second week at 4.77 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Steady Contango

CONTANGO WATCH: Like aluminum, zinc remains in steady contango through its entire forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: Zinc roll costs edged higher over the past week by about 1 percent, but remain relatively modest.
BOTTOM LINE: Steady Contango

CONTANGO WATCH: Lead is back in steady backwardation throughout its one-year forward curve.
ROLL COSTS: Investors net a solid 4.4 percent rolling front-month lead contracts, though that's less than they might have earned last week.
BOTTOM LINE: Steady Backwardation

CONTANGO WATCH: The nickel forward curve remains virtually flat before shifting to steady backwardation after August.
ROLL COSTS: Investors neither pay nor gain by rolling front-month nickel contracts, making them a pure price play.
BOTTOM LINE: Flat to Backwardation

CONTANGO WATCH: Tin is now in steady backwardation throughout its one-year forward curve, a notable shift from last week.
ROLL COSTS: Investors now net 0.2 percent annualized on the tin roll, a slight improvement from last week's 0.6 percent cost.
BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation
Agricultural Commodities

CONTANGO WATCH: Corn's forward curve features contango at the very front end, backwardation in the middle, and then contango once again.
ROLL COSTS: After last week's significant price volatility, corn's annualized front-month roll cost increased noticeably to 12 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

CONTANGO WATCH: The wheat forward curve steepened significantly on the front end.
ROLL COSTS: Wheat's annualized front-month roll cost spiked dramatically after last week's extremely volatile trading.
BOTTOM LINE: Steep Contango

CONTANGO WATCH: Soybeans remains in contango through July before moving into backwardation.
ROLL COSTS: While soybean roll costs did increase last week, the move was modest relative to those of corn and wheat.
BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

CONTANGO WATCH: The very front of the live cattle curve remains flat, but then it shifts into steep seasonal contango thereafter.
ROLL COSTS: Front-month roll costs edged into positive territory, but look for rolls to get much bigger in the near future.
BOTTOM LINE: Humpbacked Contango

CONTANGO WATCH: Unsurprisingly, lean hogs remains in steep seasonal contango.
ROLL COSTS: The lean hogs annualized roll, while steep now, should level off in the coming weeks.
BOTTOM LINE: Humpbacked Seasonal Contango
Soft Commodities

CONTANGO WATCH: The very front end of the coffee forward curve has moved into backwardation, but the rest of the curve remains similar to last week.
ROLL COSTS: Annualized front-month roll costs for coffee moved into negative territory, with investors now netting almost 1.3 percent annualized from rolling front-month contracts.
BOTTOM LINE: Humpbacked Contango

CONTANGO WATCH: The cocoa forward curve shifted significantly this past week, moving from backwardation to mild contango.
ROLL COSTS: Investors now have to pay about 1.6 percent to roll front-month cocoa contracts, a notable shift from the past few weeks.
BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

CONTANGO WATCH: The sugar forward curve continues to exhibit extremely steep backwardation, rivaled only by cotton.
ROLL COSTS: Little has changed over the past several weeks, as investors continue to net very attractive positive roll yields from holding sugar contracts.
BOTTOM LINE: Steep Backwardation

CONTANGO WATCH: For cotton futures, the steepest part of the curve remains between July and December.
ROLL COSTS: Cotton's positive annualized roll yield may have fallen slightly to 45 percent, but remains steep—and attractive—by any measure.
BOTTOM LINE: Steep Backwardation
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