HardAssetsInvestor

Mike Norman, anchor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Norman): Hello everybody, and welcome to HardAssetsInvestor.com. I’m Mike Norman, your host. Well, another year upon us, 2010, and what lies in store? We’re going to talk about that, and we’re going to talk about the year just concluded, 2009, where we saw a lot of big moves: gold hitting a record high.

Joining me today is Miguel Perez-Santalla, who’s the vice president of marketing for Heraeus Precious Metals Management. Miguel, thanks for coming back; always good to see you. Here we are, in a new year. Let’s backtrack a little bit, just take a look at 2009 … a lot of things, the resumption of the commodities market rally, a new record-high price – at least in nominal terms – in gold. What are your thoughts about what we saw in 2009, and maybe looking forward to 2010?

Miguel Perez-Santalla, VP marketing, Heraeus Precious Metals Management (Perez-Santalla): Well, in the beginning, we saw some consumption from the industrial side when it was at the lower end of the spectrum. Once it started rallying, the industry needed to continue buying metal. But they started holding off. So the actual physical consumption of metal is way off from the industrial sector.

But the investment market is the main demand of all the metals in driving the price up. Everything is being delivered on the Comex and to the London warehouses. That’s where it’s all going. So if we’re talking gold, that’s really where the demand is.

Norman: Now, is that so sensitive to price? I mean, the investors who are buying gold, they're buying it on the idea that gold is a safe haven. They saw trends in foreign exchange markets last year, where the dollar weakened significantly. They see monetary policy, and some say fiscal policy, which portend inflationary pressures down the road. So it would seem like they're not that concerned with the price level. For them, it’s more of a safe haven. It’s a security asset. And as long as that remains the mentality, will we see this steady flow of investment money into gold?

Perez-Santalla: Well, I think one of the biggest issues is that, since there’s nowhere to earn money securely, people are hiding their money into precious metals, including the other metals as well. So gold is getting all that luster. It’s growing on that. And everyone’s thinking that the valuation might be coming to and driving the gold price up.

In the end, though, I think once the Federal Reserve starts to raise rates even the slightest bit, it will be a major effect on gold. I think gold has run out of steam at the moment. The Fed’s going to raise rates eventually. And, once it does, the price will come off.

Norman: Now, we did start to see the price pull back. We got up to a high of about, I believe it was about $1,250, and pulled back about $100 from that price level. Is that possibly in anticipation of this shift in monetary policy? Or is it just a minor correction in that uptrend right now?

Perez-Santalla: I think it’s a minor correction at the moment. I think if the monetary policy of the Fed doesn’t change, gold can continue to go higher or go back up to the highs at least that we’ve seen. Because that’s where the investment money goes. Remember, the precious metals market is actually a very small market. So a little bit of money can make that price move higher.

Norman: As with all commodities, basically, when you compare them to the size of securities markets. You know, one thing that got a lot of attention last year was the central banks moving in and purchasing gold. You had India, I believe. You had China Central Bank, in an effort, it was said, to diversify their reserves. But if you look at the pattern of central banks, I mean, they were aggressive sellers of gold back in the ‘90s when we were at $250 an ounce. Are they better contrarian indicators than investors you want to follow?

Perez-Santalla: Well, I don’t think they're investors at all. And really, India did a swap with the IMF. So it didn’t affect any supply and demand factors in the marketplace. And even the other central banks – like the Russian Central Bank – just took off fresh supplies from their market. And so I don’t see them being a good guidance at all to look at. And I also think that central bank activities had a nil effect on real supply and demand factors.

So if you're looking for fundamentals, there’s no real fundamentals here. This is strictly investment money driving the price higher because of the size of the market and the size of the investment money coming in.