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***Top stories from the last 15 days
- Recorded by HardAssetsInvestor.com |
- October 20, 2009
Daniel Cronin: Copper Could Break $3
- Details
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Norman: Well, I think the ones who were long totally grasped it. But as long as you brought up oil, let’s talk about it. Because we went down to $35; we’re back up to $70, $72. We seem to be hovering in this area now. What’s the outlet? I mean, if you look at other petroleum, if you look at natural gas, that has totally collapsed. Do we go back to $150? Cronin: I don’t think we go back to $150 anytime in the near future really. But we’re on this trading range from $68 to $75. And it really is all about the U.S. dollar. Because the fundamentals are still somewhat bearish with oversupply and still weak demand. Norman: In the oil? Cronin: In the oil industry. And I believe it’s all about the U.S. dollar. We broke that $1.445 range in the euro/U.S. dollar, which means the weak dollar. Now we’re trading at $147. And that just kind of gave a little fuel to the fire for the investors to go in and buy it from $68; now we’re at $72. And I know inventory stats came out today [Sept. 16]. Norman: Why do people buy … why don’t they just … if they don’t like the dollar, why don’t they buy the euro, why don’t they buy the yen, why don’t they buy … I mean, the currency market is the biggest market in the world. Do you think it’s proper, it’s correct, that people own physical commodities where there are maybe finite amounts of these things and they are critical to the functioning of the global economy? I mean, it seems like everyone seems to be okay with it, but you could hedge the dollar by buying another currency. Cronin: You definitely can. But I think everybody wants a piece of the oil market really. Because it is kind of … Norman: Seems like it. Cronin: … it is kind of the indicator for how, I guess, the economy is doing right now. Norman: But what about the Saudis, what about OPEC? I mean, the Saudis really are the price-setters at the margin. I mean, if they wanted, they can bring on more output, more production. They’re keeping things the way they are right now. Don’t you have to look at what their intentions are? Cronin: I think so. Because obviously OPEC definitely wants to see higher oil prices for their profits. The last three times out, they didn’t cut production. I think they didn’t cut that just basically because the economy was so weak, and they just felt like it was going to be too much of a burden for the investors. Norman: One final question I want to ask you: What about this whole trend towards alternative energy, cleaner fuels? It seems to me now it’s a different ball game. Because in the past, whenever oil prices have spiked up, consumers have backed off. But as soon as it came back down, we went back into it. But now oil is really perceived in a completely different way. It’s looked at as a contributor to greenhouse gases. We’re on this trend for more fuel efficiency. In the long term, does that cut into oil’s kind of dominance as a fuel? Cronin: I think so. I think alternative energies is … you know, we have to try to limit ourselves on the dependence on foreign oil. And is there anything we can do in the U.S. to, say, like you said, with the automotive industry, maybe some electric cars or something like that. And then I know President Obama was trying to do the CAFE restrictions on the miles per gallon on new cars coming out, from 28 to 36, trying to get more bang for your buck in the gasoline tank. So I know we’re trying to do everything we can right now to get alternative energies into the market. Norman: Well, not me. I just bought a big gas guzzler. Because I like to step down on that gas pedal and get somewhere. All right. Well, Daniel, thanks very much. I want to thank Daniel Cronin for coming in and joining me on the show. Cronin: I appreciate it; my pleasure. Norman: That’s it for now, folks. I’ll be back next week with another interview. In the meantime, as always, HardAssetsInvestor.com; that’s your place for great news and information on the materials and commodities markets. Take care for now. This is Mike Norman. I’ll see you.
Be sure to check Part I of our interview with Daniel Cronin.
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