HardAssetsInvestor

Written by Lara Crigger  |

March 01, 2010

Riding The Golden Bubble

Details

Gold in a bubble? Who cares? Not George Soros, at least.

• Why Soros is buying the ‘ultimate bubble asset’
• Why IAU and SGOL aren’t sharing the good times
• How high does gold go in 2010?

 

Podcast listeners might remember a few months ago when I bet our research editor a steak dinner that gold would top $1,250/oz before it would sink back below $1,000/oz. For awhile there, things weren't looking too good for me or my appetite, as gold plunged off its December highs like a diver in free fall; the metal scraped as low as $1,052/oz early last month. But as gold closed above $1,117/oz on Friday, I'm happy to say that I might just get my dead cow after all:

Gold Price, February 2010

Source: Kitco.com

 

Of course, renewed strength in gold means a revival of The Big Question from last fall: Is gold in a bubble? This time, however, it seems the answer on everyone's lips is: "Who cares?"

"I absolutely believe [gold's] heading into a bubble, but that's why you buy it," Charles Morris, manager of HSBC Global Asset Management's $2.5 billion Absolute Return Fund, told Bloomberg earlier today. After predicting that gold could hit as high as $5,000/oz in the next five years, he added, with shades of Gordon Gekko, "A bubble is good."

Investors Big And Small Piling Into Gold

Perhaps that's why we've seen such incredible upswing in investment demand for the yellow metal year over year, particularly in ETFs. According to the World Gold Council, ETF demand in 2009 hit 594.7 tonnes—85 percent higher than 2008 levels. Granted, most of that was driven by outsized buying in the first quarter of '09, as investors, smarting from the 2008 financial crisis, fled perilous markets into supposed safe haven assets like gold. Still, ETF buying has remained brisk, with demand in Q4 2009 hitting 31.6 tonnes.

Most of that demand has gravitated toward the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD), the world's biggest bullion-backed ETF and the second-largest ETF overall. Investors big and small piled into GLD last year, which saw $13.8 billion in new net investment dollars in 2009. The fund now sits at over $35.4 billion in assets under management.

Even noted gold skeptics now want a piece of the action. Famed hedge fund manager George Soros—who not too long ago dubbed gold the "ultimate bubble"—has increased his GLD holdings; in the fourth quarter of last year alone, Soros Fund Management bumped its holdings in GLD by 152 percent. According to Bloomberg data, as of Dec. 31, 2009, the firm is now the fourth-largest holder of GLD, at 6,178,342 shares.

Still, that's nothing compared with John Paulson's ETF bet: Paulson & Co. holds 31.5 million shares of GLD (nearly 96 tons' worth)—which, at today's prices, is worth just under $3.45 billion.