HardAssetsInvestor

Written by Julian Murdoch  |

February 16, 2010

Following The Bouncing Baltic Dry

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We examine the Baltic Dry's wild ride in 2009, and what it could mean for shipping and investors in 2010.

• What's behind the Baltic Dry's 2009 swings?
• Will more ships balance out higher 2010 demand?
• What's the best way to play higher shipping rates?

 

Mid-February may seem like an odd time to look at 2009's shipping year in review. But as we enter earnings reporting season, now is actually the ideal time to revisit the things that were for shipping companies, as well as look ahead to what may come.

And 2009 was a heck of a year. Just look at the Baltic Dry Index:

 

 

As we've discussed previously, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) gives an idea of the spot price for hiring a commodity-carrying ship at a given point in time. (These ships tend to carry dry-bulk goods like ores, such as iron and coal.)

As a composite of the three major ship types on four main shipping routes, the index value itself doesn't divulge specific shipping rates. But a high BDI value generally means the cost of hiring a boat is also high, making the index a good proxy for the health of global trade.

After hitting a low of 772 in January, the index performed true to character; that is, with huge volatility, moving up and down in rapid succession. When the economy went to hell in a handbasket, the BDI was right there with it. Shipping rates dropped so low that ship owners were mothballing their fleets or even scrapping the old ships because they were no longer profitable to sail; their boats were worth more in pieces.

But the Baltic Dry Index did manage to sustain a much higher average of 2658 points, and currently, the index is slightly below that average, sitting at 2571. That's better news for shipping demand, but it's still well off its 2008 record high of 11,793 points.

As far as the individual ships comprising the Baltic Dry, they're also a far cry from their 2008 levels. As of Friday, daily spot charter rates for the monster 150,000+ ton capesize vessels hit $29,259/day, with the much smaller Panamax ships running $24,383/day. But back in May '08 when the BDI was at record highs, capesize charters had hit a breathtaking $230,000/day.

Overall in 2009, despite occasional glimpses of global recovery, charter rates never got anywhere near that high, although rates in May and November did hover around the $90,000 mark. Given that Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. estimates the daily overhead on a capesize to be about $7,555, ship owners have still seen a decent profit margin, even at today's much lower charter prices.

 

Fourth-Quarter Surprises

An early read on 4Q earnings (and thus the health of the industry) came last week from shipper Safe Bulkers (NYSEArca: SB).

While Safe Bulkers missed analysts' expectations of $0.45 per share, it still managed to survive 2009 nicely. In its fourth quarter 2009, the company saw net income rise 95 percent year-over-year, $11.9 million to $23.2 million (or $.42 per share). That said, fourth-quarter revenue fell 22 percent from 2008, to hit $36.6 million.

But it's still too early in the earnings season to draw too many conclusions. Other companies to report 4Q results this month include Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN) on Feb. 22, Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK) on Feb. 23 and Genco Shipping (NYSE: GNK) on Feb 24.

 

Predicting The Future

Since most public shipping companies have their ships charted out on long-term charters, it is fairly easy to reliably predict company returns three months out. But what counts long term is where shipping rates are headed, and that can be harder to forecast.

If you want to know what the word is on the street, a recent poll by theStreet.com says a majority of readers think dry-bulk rates will rise, to the $30,000 to $40,000 range. But what do the analysts say?