HardAssetsInvestor

Written by Brad Zigler  |

November 11, 2009

Can Gold Supplant Commodities In YOUR Portfolio?

Details

Does swapping broad-based commodities exposure for the yellow metal pay off? We crunch the numbers—with some startling results.

• How endowments approach gold
• Is gold or GSCI a better diversifier?
• Why contango matters

 

There was a time not so long ago when allocating investment capital was a pretty simple affair. Financial advisers used to recommend a basic "60/40" portfolio: 60 percent in equities and 40 percent in fixed-income securities. Investors might tweak their portfolios around the edges to allow for a cash hoard or a dollop of gold, but that was about as fancy as investing got.

Recently, as exchange-traded products have proliferated—with some carving markets into thinner and thinner subslices, and others opening up previously inaccessible asset classes—portfolios have gotten more complex.

Further spurring investors to rethink their asset allocations are growing inflation concerns and the sterling investment results obtained by the Yale and Harvard endowments, which use alternative investments to slice, dice and rejigger portfolio risk.

However, investors hoping to mimic the endowment portfolios are often left scratching their heads when they consider the so-called real assets allocations.

Specifically, investors have begun pondering the utility of replacing their gold allocation with the broader-based commodity exposure favored by institutional portfolios. From an efficiency standpoint, the question basically boils down to this: Can exposure to a single commodity—say, gold—provide the desired diversification benefit? Or must a full basket of futures be employed?

Take the roster that makes up the S&P/GSCI Commodity Index (formerly the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index). GSCI is a production-weighted index comprising two dozen commodity futures traded in New York, Chicago and London. Gold is a middling component of the index, accounting for nearly 3 percent of the benchmark's weight.

 

GSCI Components

Source: Goldman Sachs. All figures as of Nov. 10, 2009

Note: Commodity weights may total more than 100% due to rounding

 

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