HardAssetsInvestor

Written by Lara Crigger  |

May 29, 2009

Nusbaum: Buying Agriculture

Details

Financial adviser and TheStreet.com contributor Roger Nusbaum sees opportunities in agriculture and other hard asset categories.

• Oil is going to $80
• Gold still has a place
• Monsanto as a core holding

 

Roger Nusbaum of Your Source Financial is one of the leading commentators in the financial press. In addition to writing his own blog, Random Roger, he is a regular contributor to TheStreet.com, GreenFaucet.com and is a regular interviewee for HardAssetsInvestor.com.

HAI assistant editor Lara Crigger caught up with Roger recently to discuss where he's finding opportunity in the commodities market.

 

Lara Crigger (Crigger): So are we in economic recovery mode yet?

Nusbaum: Certainly the recent rally has been huge. But it's been so fast and panicked that I'd be shocked if we didn't move down again at some point. I don't know if it would take out the S&P 500's low, but something big enough to scare the hell out of people again.

Because thus far, all this has been very normal bear market activity. If you look at past bear markets, there have been massive "feel-good" rallies. And as feel-good rallies go, this one wasn't even that big. So I try to caution my clients not to bank emotionally on this [recent bear market] being over.

The precedent is, the stock market usually leads the economy by six-to-nine months. So I think the economy may start to recover in a sustainable way at the end of '09, the beginning of 2010. It's not going to be boom times, but in terms of GDP growth going and staying positive, I think that's plausible.

Crigger: Last time we spoke, you said you "wouldn't hesitate" to buy gold. Do you still feel that way?

Nusbaum: The short answer: yes. But the long answer comes back to the context in which I'd use it.

Gold is insurance against big bad events, a means of reducing exposure to the volatility that may follow when something bad happens. It's also gotten a recent boost from what appears to be our willingness to devalue our way to prosperity, with the printing of money that so many other people have been talking about.

So to that effect, I've also added DBA [PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund, NYSE Arca: DBA]. Both GLD and DBA have a 2% portfolio weight, so it's not a big bet. But I don't think you need big bets to capture the effect. Plus, there are also some compelling long-term supply-and-demand issues for agricultural commodities.

But clearly, the financial markets are not healthy right now. And for all the virtues of commodities, they are volatile. In an unhealthy world, I don't want to have a lot of volatility for my clients.

Crigger: Do you think the de-stocking in industrials is over? Are you buying steel companies, copper, and so on?

Nusbaum: My materials exposure has been the same for awhile, although I've occasionally tweaked the weights. For example, the Brazilian company Companhia Vale do Rio Doce [NYSE: VALE], I've owned that name in varying position sizes since 2004. A couple of times I shaved some off, or I added a little bit. But it's a core holding.

While I don't think it's ideal to own individual stocks for my clients, when I do want the exposure, there's MXI [iShares S&P Global Materials Sector Index ETF, NYSE Arca: MXI], which I use as a proxy in a few instances.

In terms of copper, I wish that I had! I made a mistake in not adding some copper when I had the chance.