HardAssetsInvestor

Written by Brad Zigler  |

May 07, 2009

Commodity ETPs Closing In On A Bull Market

Details

HardAssetsInvestor.com's managing editor compares six broad-based commodity exchange-traded products.

• Risk trades are back
• Investor sentiment has shifted
• Interest in 'safe-haven' gold is eroding

 

Over the past trading week, one thing's become quite clear: Risk trades are back. A resurgent stock market, for one thing, attests to a definitive shift in investor expectations. Monday's market action brought the S&P 500 Composite past the breakeven mark for the year after being down more than 33%.

The eight-week rally spilled over into other equity markets, but rising stock prices aren't the only marker of investors' sharpening appetite for risk.

Credit spreads have also tightened, indicating a greater willingness on the part of commercial banks to lend. Tuesday, three-month dollar LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) slipped below 1%, shedding 44 basis points (0.44%) since the beginning of the year. At the height of the credit crisis in October, three-month dollar loans were priced as high as 4.82%.

Traders have moved from the relative safe haven of the greenback to higher-yielding resource-linked currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi dollars and the South African rand. Yields on U.S. Treasury securities, as a consequence, have jumped to levels not seen since November.

The Fed Funds traded rate - the actual price at which excess reserves are loaned between banks - has risen toward the top of the Federal Reserve's 25-basis point target range, after being offered at bottom-scraping rates for weeks.

Commodities - that is, certain commodities, such as crude oil, base metals and the softs - have awakened to turn upward. At the same time, interest in safe-haven gold has been eroding.

The renewed interest in commodities has been reflected in the price trends of broad-based exchange-traded products (ETPs).

Among the half-dozen notes and funds with trading histories of at least 200 days, five have broken to the upside of their 50-day moving averages. None has yet risen above its 200-day mark, the threshold for heralding a primary bull market. The one exchange-traded note (ETN) now trading below its 50-day average is paradoxically the one closest to starting a bullish trend.

So, which commodity exchange-traded fund (ETF) or note is the most sensitive bellwether of a nascent commodity bull market? Read on ...

 

ELEMENTS S&P CTI ETN (NYSE Arca: LSC)

The ELEMENTS note is an obligation of HSBC USA and is designed to replicate the returns generated by the S&P Commodity Trends Indicator Total Return Index. As featured in "A Real Commodity Moneymaker," this long-short product simulates real-world commodity trading. The index tracked by this note comprises 16 commodity futures grouped into six sectors. With the exception of the energy sector, each segment is positioned either long or short monthly, based on its price behavior relative to its moving average. The index methodology countenances only long or flat positions for energy; shorts are not permitted.

Presently, and for some time, LSC's underlying index has been flat energy and, as a consequence, the ETN has outperformed the long-only products when petroleum product prices swooned.

 

iShares S&P/GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSE Arca: GSG)

The iShares ETF tracks the performance of the S&P/GSCI Excess Return Index, by holding futures skewed heavily (66%) toward energy contracts. The fund's underlying index comprises two dozen different commodities and is production-weighted to reflect each commodity's relative importance in the world economy. Agriculture, excluding soft commodities and livestock, at 18%, is the index's second-weightiest sector.

 

iPath S&P/GSCI TRI ETN (NYSE Arca: GSP)

The iPath note, the unsecured debt of Barclays Bank plc, is based upon the total return version of the S&P/ GSCI, which includes incremental return earned from holding futures collateral in U.S. Treasury bills.

 

GS Connect S&P/GSCI Enhanced Commodity TR ETN (NYSE Arca: GSC)

Another variant of the S&P/ GSCI acts as the basis for an ETN issued by Goldman Sachs. The Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy Index reflects the returns earned by holding the same futures contracts that are included in the S&P/GSCI. This index variant, however, uses a roll mechanism in an attempt to boost returns and sidestep the corrosive effect of contango.

The index methodology employs a rules matrix that dictates specific roll strategies for each commodity in an attempt to take advantage of historical and structural pricing differences among the various contracts.