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Deathwatch Redux: Oil Over $111
Written by Brad Zigler   
April 09, 2008 12:14 PM EST


Crude oil supplies zigged lower by 3.2 million barrels while industry insiders expected a zag upward of 2.2 million barrels. That's a 5.4 million-barrel surprise. No small change. Guess what effect that had on crude oil prices?

Sure enough, May crude open the NYMEX floor session 20 cents higher before the report's release, then shot up past $111, a new contract high. Keep that $111 price in mind.

Gasoline inventories also fell by a larger-than-expected margin, dropping 3.4 million barrels against intimations of a 2.3 million-barrel decline. The price effect this morning? After opening up 2 cents per gallon firmer, the May NYMEX blendstock contract zipped up 2.5% to $2.80, a new record for the contract.

But it was the distillates, including heating oil, that really took a big drawdown, falling more than three times expectations. Inventories declined 3.7 million barrels. The Street was thinking stocks would dip by only a million barrels. That surprise sent heating oil prices skyward. The May NYMEX contract grabbed more than 8 cents a gallon, or 2.6%, in upside to reach new life-of-contract highs at the $3.19 level.

Now, about the $111 crude oil price. Before the last sell-off, we ran a piece on the MacroShares oil portfolios (AMEX: UCR and AMEX: DCR) entitled "MacroShares Oil Funds: Death Watch?" which pondered the potential demise of these vexatious portfolios (the consternation occasioned by these funds is outlined in "Accounting For MacroShares Premia/Discounts").

If the NYMEX spot contract closes at or above $111 for three consecutive days, the MacroShares portfolios are going to have to wind down.

Owners of the MacroShares Oil Up (UCR) portfolio have alternative instruments in which to roll. There's the United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) ETF, for instance, or its recently minted sibling, the United States 12-Month Oil Fund (AMEX: USL). The PowerShares DB Oil Fund (AMEX: DBO) is also an option. For those that think exchange-traded notes are more suitable, the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return ETN (NYSE Arca: OIL) can be used (for comparative performance stats on these instruments, see "Monthly Oil Check."

But where do oil bears go, assuming they still wish to remain bearish or have the capital to do so? They'll be orphaned unless they're willing to short the ETF/ETN products or venture over to the futures and options mart.

Imagine that. Bears with no place to go.



 
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