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What's Better: Gold or Silver?
Written by Brad Zigler   
November 06, 2007 11:25 AM EST


On Monday, gold for December delivery finished trading at $810.80 an ounce, up 0.28 percent while silver settled at $14.785, a gain of 1.27 percent on the day.

Clearly, it was better to be an owner of silver than a gold bug. A long position in silver gained $930 per contract, while a gold contract brought in only $230.

When I saw this, I got to thinking about the gold/silver ratio which now stands at 55-to-1.

When coins were first minted by the Greeks two millennia ago, the ratio of gold to silver was a lot lower. Gold's value was closer to 10-to-1 then. In the 1930s and 1940s the ratio reached 90-to-1 and, by 1991, it peaked at about 98-to-1. Traders used to pay a lot more attention to the ratio as a clue to relative value, but nowadays, many claim the ratio is no longer relevant.

One fellow, an admitted silver bug, looks at the ratio with a fresh perspective. Theodore Butler, AKA "The Silver Seeker," takes a market capitalization point of view. Using data from the World Gold Council, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Silver Institute, Butler determined the history of "above ground" supplies of gold and silver over the past century to surprising effect.

Gold above ground amounts are easier to pinpoint than silver amounts, partly because gold is still held by world governments. Virtually none of it is ever destroyed by non-recoverable industrial consumption. Therefore, every ounce of gold that is mined annually is added to above ground total amounts. Some five billion ounces of the yellow metal are above ground, as of 2006, according to World Gold Council estimates.

Silver, however, is industrially consumed. According to Butler, more silver has been consumed in the past six decades than has been mined, even allowing for recycling. As of last year, the highest estimate for existing silver bullion equivalent (bullion plus "junk" coin) is one billion ounces, says Butler.

Butler's historical view of the gold/silver ratio looks like this:
.

 

Year

 

Gold Market Cap

 

Silver Market Cap

Ratio (Price)

Ratio (Market Cap)

 

 

 

 

 

1900

$20 Billion
(1 billion oz. x $20)

$8 Billion
(12 billion oz. x 65 cents)

30

2.5

1950

$70 Billion
(2 billion oz. x $35)

$8 Billion
(10 billion oz. x 80 cents)

44

9

1975

$450 Billion
(3 billion oz. x $150)

$20 Billion
(5 billion oz. x $4)

38

23

2006

$3 Trillion
(5 billion oz. x $600)

$12 Billion
(1 billion oz. x $12)

50

250

While the conventional gold/silver ratio comparison has changed comparatively little, the market cap ratio has increased 100- fold over the course of 106 years. This, Butler contends, makes the case for silver being grossly undervalued relative to gold nowadays.

Even more compelling is Butler's case stated on a per capita basis. Accounting for world population growth, there's a distinct disparity in metal availability:

Year

World Population (billions)

Gold Market Cap
(billions)

Silver Market Cap
(billions)

 

Gold Per Capita

 

Silver Per Capita

 

 

 

 

 

 

1900

1.6

$20

$8

$13

$5

1950

2.5

$70

$8

$28

$3

1975

4.0

$450

$20

$113

$5

2006

6.5

$3,000

$12

$462

$2

"On a per capita dollar basis, the world's citizens have never owned more gold or less silver than they do today," says Butler.

Butler is quick to add that he's not saying that gold is overvalued or is set to head south. In fact,
says Butler, "the market cap of gold is most likely to continue to grow."

Still, the data leads The Silver Seeker to the certain conclusion that silver must, at some point, rise dramatically on both an absolute and relative basis versus gold.

Stay tuned.



 
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Comments (4)

 Monday, 27 October 2008 15:13 EST - Posted by j frit

 
i read somewhere back in the early 70's that the old ancient ratio of relative value was 16:1 or 18:1 depending on the research. many of the slick brochures for investing in silver at $1.29/oz. or gold at $35/oz. was put out by absolute crooks, snake oil salesmen who turned off investors of a potential excellent return possibility. is the same thing happening today? i see ads all over the cable channels to buy/invest?

 Monday, 27 October 2008 16:01 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
The ratio has varied considerably over time. Nothing requires a ratio to return to historic levels.

The investment merits of silver should be gauged apart from those of gold. There's comparatively little industrial demand for gold, while silver has many manufacuring applications, so the two metals can be influenced by different economic factors.

 Wednesday, 29 October 2008 9:08 EST - Posted by zarnicki

 
Like any commodity, until it is perceived by the marketplace as "valuable", the value will remain relatively the same. In the charts above, nothing has sunstantially changed in over the last 100 years years to make a dramtic hcnage in the value of silver. It is said that now silver has an industrial use. But silver had a more fruitful period in the past in the minting of coins. Its a matter of wait and see if silver might make that great leap or continue to plod modestly along as it has for over the last century.

 Wednesday, 29 October 2008 9:52 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
A lot of traders and investors, however, still hold the notion that there's some "natural" ratio that the metals "should" seek.

By "fruitful," what do you mean?



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