Upcoming Conferences
 


HAI

Unless otherwise indicated, the material below has not been prepared by Van Eck Associates Corporation or HardAssetsInvestor.com.
Neither assumes any liability for any content on a third party website or material prepared by a third party.

Features and Interviews

  
Poor Nothing special Worth watching Pretty cool Awesome! 24 Ratings
Rate this article
Translating Currencies Through Gold
Written by Brad Zigler   
Tuesday, 29 April 2008 18:33

Back in 1883, a 60-page language guide published in Britain became the object of so much hilarity that American wit Mark Twain sang its praises as the "perfect" work of humor. The tome, English as She Is Spoke, was intended to be a simple Portuguese-English phrase book, but instead became a masterpiece of unintended mirth.

The Portuguese authors intended to provide their countrymen with English words and phrases that could be used in travels to the British Isles, but they were beset with a trifling problem: Neither knew a lick of English.

Undaunted and possessed of a modest command of French, they set about their task by first translating a Portuguese-French conversational guide into English with the aid of a French-English dictionary.

You can imagine the result.

A query to be directed to a barber sums up the translation problem neatly: "Do you dress the hairs?" The ensuing recommendation for patter should give you pause the next time you converse with your own tonsorial technician:

 

Traveler: "Your razors are them well?"

Barber:
"Yes sir."

Traveler:
"Comb-me quickly; don't put me so much pomatum. What news tell me? All hairs dresser are newsmonger."

Barber:
"Sir, I have no heared any thing."

 

Now, what on earth does all this have to do with hard assets?

Well, here at HardAssetsInvestor.com, we've written much about the relationship of commodities and inflation. Much of the discussion, too, has been dollar-centric since commodities are priced in greenbacks for world trade. The price for gold, as an example, is set in dollars at the London Bullion Market Association's twice-daily fixings.

That said, gold buyers are constantly making translations of their home currencies through the gold market, sometimes to surprising effect.

Look at gold's history over the past three years, priced in various currencies:

 

 

Currency - Adjusted Gold Price

 

 

Using gold as a benchmark, the chart seems to indicate that its value has risen most in Yankee dollars over the past three years and the least in terms of Canadian loonies. Put another way, the Americans have inflated their dollars by the greatest degree; Canadians the least.

This may seem surprising to folk who don't live in border states or provinces, so we should check our math. To do that, we'll dust off a notion from Econ 101: the theory of purchasing power parity.

The theory states that exchange rates should equalize the price of goods in any two countries. Thus, gold can help us judge just how far currencies deviate from fair value. The implied purchasing parity price is the exchange rate that makes the U.S.-dollar price of gold the same in each country.

As of April 28, 2008, the market looked like this:

 

 

U.S.

Dollar ($)

U.K.

Pound (£)

Switzerland

Franc

(CHF)

China

Yuan (CNY)

Australia

Dollar (A$)

EU

Euro (€)

Canada

Dollar (C$)

3-Year Gold

Appreciation

 

104.9%

 

96.7%

 

77.9%

 

73.9%

 

70.5%

 

69.6%

 

66.3%

Interbank Exchange Rate

 

--

 

$1.9863

 

$0.9672

 

$0.1429

 

$0.9339

 

$1.5632

 

$0.9868

Implied Parity

Price

 

--

 

$1.9853

 

$0.9663

 

$0.1425

 

$0.9329

 

$1.5622

 

$0.9859

 

Difference

 

--

 

0.05%

 

0.10%

 

0.32%

 

0.11%

 

0.07%

 

0.09%

 

When looked at from a current market standpoint, most of the world's major currencies are trading fairly close to parity, though all are a tad overvalued against the greenback. Most egregious is the Chinese yuan, which previously was the object of so much jawboning about its cheapness.

From this simple translation exercise-exchanging currencies through gold-we've found that the selling of dollars has been overdone a bit.

Not that I know who's been doing it, mind you.

"I have no heared any thing."

 
Subscribe to Our Weekly Newsletter 
First Comment

Comments (0)



Post a Comment

Comment
(Limit 2,000
characters) 
*
Name: *
E-mail: *
Home page:

(optional)

Type in the displayed characters
*
Email follow-up comments to my e-mail address
 


Terms of Use
The HardAssetsInvestor.com message board and comment features are designed to facilitate thoughtful discussion of the biggest issues impacting commodity investors. All comments should be respectful. Insults and profanity are not permitted. The editor reserves the right to remove comments at his/her discretion.

Commodities Data

July 03, 2008 08:21 PM EDT

Gold Monthly OHLC
  Loading data ...
 

Weekly Commodities Poll

Will broad commodities indexes trend upward or downward in the second half of 2008?

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

  • Tom Winmill On Legislation And Speculation Limits
    Tom Winmill, portfolio manager of Midas Funds, discusses the effects of a proposed ban on commodity speculation and commodity investment in pension funds, his fund’s allocations and platinum.
    July 01, 2008
  • Why Bother With GLD Options?
    In late May, we ran a column announcing the debut of option trading on the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca: GLD) grantor trust (see "Options for Options").
    June 30, 2008
  • Golden Handcuffs Broken?
    Has gold finally pulled out of its stall? Well, things certainly improved for gold bulls Thursday.
    June 27, 2008
  • The Swissie And Gold
    The Swiss have been known for their ability to stay out of others' fights.
    June 26, 2008
  • Breakout For Gold, Some Say
    According to Jamie Chisholm of the Financial Times, gold's now staging a breakout move.
    June 20, 2008
 

Seminal Papers »