HAI

Unless otherwise indicated, the material below has not been prepared by Van Eck Associates Corporation or HardAssetsInvestor.com.
Neither assumes any liability for any content on a third party website or material prepared by a third party.

Features and Interviews

   |
Poor Nothing special Worth watching Pretty cool Awesome!
Rate this article
Jay Taylor: Another Major Equities Decline Likely
Written by HardAssetsInvestor.com   
December 02, 2009 12:00 AM EST

 

Mike Norman, anchor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Norman): Hi everybody, and welcome back to HardAssetsInvestor.com. I'm Mike Norman, your host. We're here for the second part of my interview with Jay Taylor, CEO and founder of MiningStocks.com. That's what we're going to be talking about.

So, is it better to just own the metal or the mining stocks? I mean, some people would say, “Look, when you get into stocks, you're not just only dealing with the commodity, you're dealing with management, you're dealing with accounting issues, you're dealing with maybe whatever it is the SEC decides to do. What do you say?

Jay Taylor, CEO, MiningStocks.com (Taylor): I agree with you, I think that's exactly right. That owning the stocks is a completely different game than owning the metal. I advocate owning some metal in every portfolio, I think maybe 5 or 10 percent, depending.

Norman: That's not a lot for a guy like you who’s really saying that …

Taylor: You know, the world is …

Norman: … they're printing money like crazy. Why not go to 100 percent?

Taylor: Well, OK, so I would have 5 or 10 percent maybe in the metal. But right now in a bull market, I would have a bigger percentage than that in the mining shares, perhaps.

Norman: In the shares?

Taylor: In the shares. And however, for more risk-averse people, they want to own more of the metal and less of the shares because, I agree with you, mining companies are very, very risky. It's a terrible business in some ways. Mining is a very, very tough …

Norman: Not now, though, is it?

Taylor: Well, it’s better now, but it's not all that great. It’s a very difficult business under any circumstance because it’s capital intensive, it takes forever to develop a mine. You have environmental issues that can pop up, you have political issues. The metal price can fall, there can be all kinds of risk factors. And again, it’s the time. Many times, these mining projects go into production, or they're projected to go into production three, four, five years later; they go into production by that time, but then the metal price falls. And then you're looking at another cycle, so …

Norman: But are they still hedging? I mean, we've had this phenomenal period in the last, what, it’s going on eight years that gold has been going up. And I've heard that some of these companies, they're not hedging anymore.

Taylor: OK, so a lot of the companies – Barrick, for example – made huge amounts of money on its short position. It would hedge its future sales, and it made something like $2 billion by hedging gold during the bad times, during the bear market. But they lost $4 billion, or something like that, during the bull market. So that really hurt Barrick a lot.

And, of course, it's very unpopular from shareholders right now. Shareholders don’t want their managements hedging the gold price because they want the upside on the gold price. But yeah, most of the times when they have to project finance, the banks are requiring the gold companies to have at least a portion of their production hedged forward. So if we do have a decline in the gold price, they can still make ends meet.

Norman: So now how does one go about selecting the mining company? I mean, they could go to your site, MiningStocks.com, obviously; that would probably be a good place to start. But are there some basic rules of thumb? You want to stick with the big guys, you want to stick … maybe what regions?

Taylor: Well, certainly I think more risk-averse investors want to stick with the big guys, the household names, the Newmonts, the Goldcorps, the Agnico-Eagles; those are some of my favorites among the big guys. Those are sort of the no-brainers. So, I would start with the metal and then move out a little bit to the big names.

The more speculative investors – and where the really big money can be made, though – are with the junior mining companies that find the metal in the ground. If you take a small-cap company that finds a million ounces, it's a big deal. If you take Newmont, finds a million ounces, they produce seven or eight million ounces a year, they have to find seven or eight million ounces a year.



 

 
Subscribe to Our Weekly Newsletter 
First Comment

Comments (0)



Post a Comment

Comment
(Limit 2,000
characters) 
*
Name: *
E-mail: *
Home page:

(optional)

Type in the displayed characters
Email follow-up comments to my e-mail address
 


Terms of Use
The HardAssetsInvestor.com message board and comment features are designed to facilitate thoughtful discussion of the biggest issues impacting commodity investors. All comments should be respectful. Insults and profanity are not permitted. The editor reserves the right to remove comments at his/her discretion.

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

  • Dennis Gartman: The Euro Is 'Doomed'
    The man behind The Gartman Letter says to buy the dollar, short the euro.
    February 26, 2010
  • Miguel Perez-Santalla: Gold Correction Coming
    Heraeus Precious Metals Management's VP of marketing looks back on the yellow metal’s performance in 2009, and shares his outlook for it in 2010.Is gold’s safe-haven status losing its luster?How much impact will the Fed raising rates have on gold?Are central banks good contrarian indicators?
    January 06, 2010
  • Carlos Sanchez: Get Exposure To Rising Gold Prices
    CPM Group’s associate director of research shares his view on how investors can play silver and other precious metals.
    December 30, 2009
  • Carlos Sanchez: Gold May Top $1,200 By Year-End
    CPM Group’s associate director of research discusses how current global political and economic conditions affect the price of the yellow metal.Investors continue rushing to safe-haven assetsStock markets perceived as potentially vulnerableWhat factors could cap gold price gains?
    December 23, 2009
  • Matt McCall: Bull Market For Commodities
    The CEO of Penn Financial Group discusses the factors that he sees will continue to push commodities even higher.Inflation, deflation or hyperinflation?Demand may not catch up to supplyWhy ETFs are such a good commodities vehicle
    December 09, 2009
 

Commodities Data

March 17, 2010 05:00 PM EST

  Loading data ...
 

Weekly Commodities Poll

Is now a good time to buy gold?

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

  • Dennis Gartman: The Euro Is 'Doomed'
    The man behind The Gartman Letter says to buy the dollar, short the euro.
    February 26, 2010
  • Miguel Perez-Santalla: Gold Correction Coming
    Heraeus Precious Metals Management's VP of marketing looks back on the yellow metal’s performance in 2009, and shares his outlook for it in 2010.Is gold’s safe-haven status losing its luster?How much impact will the Fed raising rates have on gold?Are central banks good contrarian indicators?
    January 06, 2010
  • Carlos Sanchez: Get Exposure To Rising Gold Prices
    CPM Group’s associate director of research shares his view on how investors can play silver and other precious metals.
    December 30, 2009
  • Carlos Sanchez: Gold May Top $1,200 By Year-End
    CPM Group’s associate director of research discusses how current global political and economic conditions affect the price of the yellow metal.Investors continue rushing to safe-haven assetsStock markets perceived as potentially vulnerableWhat factors could cap gold price gains?
    December 23, 2009
  • Matt McCall: Bull Market For Commodities
    The CEO of Penn Financial Group discusses the factors that he sees will continue to push commodities even higher.Inflation, deflation or hyperinflation?Demand may not catch up to supplyWhy ETFs are such a good commodities vehicle
    December 09, 2009
 

Seminal Papers »