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How To Play The Gold/Silver Ratio
Written by Julian Murdoch   
October 26, 2009 12:54 PM EST

 

Whether you're a gold bug or a silver buff, you've been a happy camper so far in 2009. As of Friday's close, gold was at $1,056.40, up 20 percent year-to-date. Silver has done even better; it was up 56 percent to settle at $17.723.

The upward trend has many investors going long in both metals, but there's more you can do with gold and silver than just buy and hold. You can also play the two metals off one another—but to do it successfully, you must first understand the ever-changing gold/silver ratio.

The gold/silver ratio tells you the number of ounces of silver it would take to purchase one ounce of gold at a specified date. If you examine gold and silver prices reaching back 100 years or more, the historical ratio most commonly quoted is 30:1, where 30 ounces of silver would buy you one ounce of gold.

But if you change the time period, that average changes. In the last 12 years, for example, the ratio has held closer to 60:1, meaning that it takes lots more silver to buy one ounce of gold. And in just the past three years, the ratio has fluctuated from 45 to 85, driven by the volatility in the prices of the metals themselves.

As of Friday's close, the gold/silver ratio was sitting slightly below 60, at 59.72:

 

gold/silver ratio at 10/23/09

 

Of course, looking at the ratio in a vacuum tells you nothing—it's just a number, after all. It's only after you factor in the dimension of time and the price movements underlying the number that you can make sense of the gold/silver relationship.

 

What's Driving The Ratio Down?

The gold/silver ratio will drop if either: a) gold decreases more than silver does, or b) silver increases more than gold does.

This latter case is what we've seen so far in 2009. Since the beginning of the year, both metals have had great returns, but silver has outperformed gold, increasing 56 percent year-to-date while gold only increased 20 percent:

 

Gold vs. Silver: 12/31/08 to 10/23/09

 



 

 
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Comments (18)

 Monday, 26 October 2009 22:08 EST - Posted by no quarter

 
Great article. The silver bugs will be laughing when the ratio hits 15.

 Monday, 26 October 2009 23:28 EST - Posted by shaggy

 
I think its going to be about 7 more years before we see 100 dollar an oz silver.Silver bugs just keep buying on the dips and holding waiting for that day !

 Monday, 26 October 2009 23:45 EST - Posted by Mike Hilgart

 
it was up 56 percent to settle at $17.723.
gold/silver ratio was sitting slightly below 60, at 59.72:

please take a class on how to use significant figures(numbers). It's a real pet peeve of mine to see people consistently add meaningless digits to their data. we don't have a coin that's 1/1000 of a dollar so round that $17.723 to at least $17.72. Better would be $17.70 . And the ratio needs to be rounded to the closest integer. in this case 60.
thank you
Mike

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 9:54 EST - Posted by SpTrader

 
@Mike....relax!

The 17.723 was the very real price print on the electronic silver futres contract. Which is where I beleive is the only way to trade this ratio with reduced friction costs. Also your ratio need not be an integer especially if you are trading systematically through code. How about thank you for the interesting article instead of being an A$$!

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 10:42 EST - Posted by Lara Crigger

 
You make a good point, Mike, but as SpTrader pointed out, COMEX silver future settlement prices can be quoted in fractional cents; the smallest price fluctuation allowable is $0.001. COMEX gold futures, on the other hand, fluctuate in units of $0.10, so you'll only see "normal" dollars and cents prices on them. Yes, it is confusing, I agree.

In addition, since the price of gold and silver rarely divide into each other evenly, it's not unusual to see a non-integer quoted for this ratio.

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 11:27 EST - Posted by steve

 
Hi everyone and good morning,I just have one thing to ask were and the heck are you getting your quoits of silver at?I am looking at the nas.exchange right now and slv or silver is only at 16.42 is there another exchange that I should be looking at 10=27=09

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 11:39 EST - Posted by Lara Crigger

 
Steve, the price discrepancy comes in SLV vs. COMEX silver futures. SLV, the silver ETF, is indeed trading in the $16-16.50ish range. But actual silver futures for December delivery are trading closer to $17-17.50.

Usually when you see talk in the press about the "silver price", it's referring to silver futures, not the ETF.

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 11:42 EST - Posted by Dave Nadig

 
Hi Steve,

Depends on what you're trying to trade. Comex silver is available from any trade software if you're subscribed to that exchange, or you can get quotes directly from the Nymex site: www.nymex.com/sil_fut_cso.aspx

If you're trading ETFs, obviously, you can get a realtime quote for SLV anyewhere. I like stockcharts.com personally.

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 14:49 EST - Posted by George

 
On the question of Gold/Silver ratio, we will never see the real ratio in respect of usefukness of the two metals until the Big seven Major Banks stop meddling in the metals futures market. Sadly, the big banks are a gang of crooks who have for , probably, 50 years now 'controlled' the metals pricing. Happily, we now have China as a major factor. We may see the real value of silver surface and the true ratio of approx 20/1 re-established in the not too distant future.

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 16:26 EST - Posted by Archna

 
I really love reading all this but I am the insignificant financially illiterate person and I often wonder why there is no advise for the small time beginner who just needs to save what they earn. I am saving my nickels and dimes like crazy buying little teensie bits of gold and silver in hopes of making a wise savings choice. Where does someone like me go for advise?

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 17:11 EST - Posted by SPTrader

 
@Archna

You are doing fine. What more do you want in the form of free advice? There is a reason there is a huge big fat giant disclaimer (CHS) on ever advisor's site. How about this: 25% Gold/silver Coins, 25%Cash,25% Long bonds, 25%SPX. Just do this one simple thing and rebalance every year and you will be better off than 95% of the herd.

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 18:43 EST - Posted by NolaM

 
The whole point of playing the Ratio is to stay in Real Metal Money and out of Paper Currency or Stocks...Nice try but for the Best article...just go to the master. Search the-moneychanger.com/articles_files/mmm_files/silver_files/silver_will_outperform.php
Archna...go to Kitco forums and use the search function to start. There are many other Great PM Forums and Advanced Communities out there. Get a local coinguy, join a club and read a lot. Most important thing you could do is educate yourself in Real Money.

 Tuesday, 27 October 2009 19:52 EST - Posted by Archna

 
Thanks SPTrader you gave me just what I was looking for :) NolaM thanks to you also, I will start reading the forums at Kitco. I have been reading a lot and getting very confused so I am happy to have SPTraders straightforward formula. Appreciate both of your replies.

 Wednesday, 28 October 2009 1:13 EST - Posted by Don Leake

 
For the more aggressive traders you could buy puts in the UGL (proshares ultra gold ETF) and calls in the AGQ (proshares ultra silver ETF). These funds have a beta of 2X. This means these funds move twice the dollar move in the underlying metal in either direction.

 Wednesday, 28 October 2009 9:01 EST - Posted by Lara Crigger

 
Archna, there's already been some great advice in this thread about where to find more on precious metals investing (especially Kitco—they're excellent. In fact, check back here later this week; I'll be talking with Kitco's Jon Nadler for our weekly interview.)

If you're looking for a general introduction to investing in silver and gold, may I suggest our Hard Asset University articles? In particular, the article on precious metals (www.hardassetsinvestor.com/component/content/article/31/546.html?Itemid=4) and "The Special Case for Gold" (www.hardassetsinvestor.com/component/content/article/31/547-the-special-case-for-gold.html?Itemid=4) may be of particular interest to you.
Hope that helps. You're doing the right thing by reading as much as you can and educating yourself—that's the first step.

 Thursday, 12 November 2009 17:15 EST - Posted by Jim Hadlock

 
Who knows anything about government regulated $1 "silver shots"?

 Friday, 13 November 2009 14:11 EST - Posted by steve

 
$1.00 silver shohts are options on slv either calls or puts I just don't know about the government regulated.Go to yahoo.com finance put in slv when it comes up hit the options and you will see.Have a good day,PS I don't see silver going anywere this year.

 Sunday, 07 February 2010 11:18 EST - Posted by steve

 
Now with China mineing like mad, What is that going to do for the prices?



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