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SECTOR - ENERGY
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Oil Guesses Getting Better, Still Off
Pundits and oil analysts were collectively off the mark on this week's big number: crude inventories. Stocks, which had been projected to rise by some 100,000 barrels last week, instead tumbled 2 million barrels to stay below trend line averages.
Brad Zigler Wednesday, 02 July 2008
 
Oil Inventories Report Full Of Surprises

Industry guesstimates were universally off-base this week as the U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report played havoc with over/under parlays.

Brad Zigler Wednesday, 25 June 2008
 
Chinese Inflation
gasoline price signboardWe're all so focused on the bottomless pit of Chinese demand. But what happens if the pit starts filling up?
  • Fuel vs. transportation
  • The real Chinese economy
  • The aluminum connection
Julian Murdoch Monday, 23 June 2008
 
Oil Guesstimates Still Hit-And-Miss

This morning's U.S. Energy Department report on oil and fuel inventories left fewer pundits and analysts scratching their heads, at least about crude oil stocks and refinery usage. Forecasts for crude oil stocks and refining capacity utilization were dead-on this week. The other numbers? Eh, not so good.

Brad Zigler Wednesday, 18 June 2008
 
Don't Think And Drive
It takes a holiday weekend to bring home just how much profligate consumption costs. Refilling the gas tank of the family chariot was a sobering coda. Just over a weekend, pump prices nosed up a nickel.
Brad Zigler Monday, 02 June 2008
 
More Off-Base Oil Predictions
This week, insiders foresaw U.S. crude oil inventories declining 300,000 barrels from last week's ending level of 320.4 million barrels.
Brad Zigler Thursday, 29 May 2008
 
Crude Oil Flips To Contango
As spot crude oil rushed past the $133 level yesterday, the oil market's term structure tipped into contango, ending a stint of backwardation stretching back to July 2007. Depending upon who you talk to, that either means the market's building in permanent expectations of higher-priced oil or it's a signal that the current price run-up has been overextended.
Brad Zigler Thursday, 22 May 2008
 
The (Unadjusted) Envelope, Please
Does it seem like economists have had as much success forecasting inflation as novice TV meteorologists have in forecasting rain?
Brad Zigler Tuesday, 20 May 2008
 
Stubborn Oil
The headlines have been full of hype and hot air about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but does it even matter?
  • Oil's stubborn rise
  • SPR 101
  • The futility of trying to outplay the oil markets
Julian Murdoch Monday, 19 May 2008
 
Energy’s Surprise Party
Okay, the numbers are in. And there are some big surprises among ‘em, too. The latest Energy Department report shows crude oil inventories jumped 3.8 million barrels last week, more than twice the increase insiders had expected.
Brad Zigler Wednesday, 30 April 2008
 
Jet Fuel Demand Slackens: Another Recession Indicator
Need one more indicator of a recession? Well, it came in this week's petroleum status report from our friends at the U.S. Energy Department.
Brad Zigler Wednesday, 23 April 2008
 
Volatility Cuts Into Profits
Yesterday's rally in the petroleum and soybean complexes drove up input costs, cutting into refiners' and processors' margins. The oil patch got the worst of it, though, as the NYMEX May/June crack spread shrank by more than $6 per barrel to $33.21. At that level, refiners capture a gross profit of 10% from each barrel of oil. Last week, the profit margin stood at 12.5%.
Brad Zigler Thursday, 10 April 2008
 
Walter Nasdeo, Ardour Capital, Discusses Alternative Energy Stocks: Part I
The Director of Research for Ardour Capital says alternative energy and ethanol are "here to stay."
  • Corn-based ethanol isn't going away
  • The alternative energy market is maturing
  • The relationship between alternative energy and oil prices
HardAssetsInvestor.com Tuesday, 01 April 2008
 
Profits In Process Again
Volatility in the oil patch seems to have shaken things up favorably for refiners. Profit margins, measured by the May/June crack spread, have rebounded from a year-to-date low of $28.28 per barrel, or 8.7%, set two weeks ago.
Brad Zigler Thursday, 27 March 2008
 
Oil Price Surge: Will It Help?

Oil prices are surging again following a U.S. Energy Department report showing that the nation's supplies of crude oil, gasoline and heating oil are much lower than expected.

Brad Zigler Wednesday, 26 March 2008
 
Bank of New York's Michael Woolfolk Discusses The Dollar - Part II
Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist for The Bank of New York Mellon, asks: Will the dollar remain the world’s reserve currency?
  • We want a stable dollar, not a strong dollar
  • Paulson’s success with China
  • The yuan is going up 30%+
HardAssetsInvestor.com Tuesday, 25 March 2008
 
Bank of New York's Michael Woolfolk Discusses The Dollar - Part I
Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist for The Bank of New York Mellon, examines the forces pushing the dollar lower.
  • A structural account deficit
  • Will oil-producing nations switch to the euro?
  • Fed pushing growth over inflation
HardAssetsInvestor.com Tuesday, 18 March 2008
 
Ashmead Pringle Interview Part II
The founder of the new GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund says big money is distorting the commodities market.
  • Everyone wants to be like Yale
  • The outlook for contango and backwardation
  • The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of corn
HardAssetsInvestor.com Tuesday, 11 March 2008
 
Ashmead Pringle Interview Part I
The founder of the new GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund explains why he’s completely bullish on commodities.
  • It’s hard to be bearish on energy
  • Grains outlook wide open
  • How the new fund works … and how it’s different from competing products
HardAssetsInvestor.com Wednesday, 05 March 2008
 
Paul Quartararo Interview – Part II
SPECTRA Resources' Paul Quartararo talks about the direction of the global steel market.
  • China has replaced the U.S. as the world’s largest consumer of steel
  • U.S. domestic steel production cannot supply all of domestic demand
  • Profits are not yet keeping up with price increases
Administrator Wednesday, 27 February 2008
 
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