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So, What About Silver?
Written by Brad Zigler   
January 26, 2010 12:56 PM EST
Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.7%

We write too much about gold, according to some of our readers. "What about silver?" is a plaint we've heard more than once this past week.

Okay, what about it? Like gold, the silver market was holed by news of Chinese bank tightening. Does that mean the silver ship is sinking? Well, no. At least not yet.

The talk about a three-year government spending freeze and the dollar's buoyancy isn't helping the silver bulls' cause, either. This morning's reports on consumer confidence and home prices were a mixed bag that apparently didn't contain enough bullish goodies. At last look after the reports were digested, spot metal was off about 13 cents to $16.84 an ounce.

Cash silver is trying to maintain itself above the same support level held between May and August 2008 before a breakdown to the $8-$9 tier. The market opened today near oversold levels, at least as measured by volatility and stochastics. Other key technical indicators, such as MACD and relative strength, turned bearish last week.

Momentumwise, silver's on the skids, having fallen below its 10-, 20- and 50-day moving averages. There's a lot of downside room, however, before the market hits its 200-day average at $15.66. The last time silver tested its longer-term trend was the mid-July 2009 setup for a run that peaked in December.

On that basis, spot metal needs to stay above $16.80 today to offer much encouragement to bulls in the near term. A decisive break below that level will give the bears the confidence to push for a test at the key $15.97 retracement level.

Of course, there are some bulls hoping for just such a sell-off to give them a buying opportunity.

Now, that's what's going on with silver.

 

COMEX/CME Silver (Jan. '10)

COMEX/CME Silver (Jan. ’10)



 

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