HAI

Unless otherwise indicated, the material below has not been prepared by Van Eck Associates Corporation or HardAssetsInvestor.com.
Neither assumes any liability for any content on a third party website or material prepared by a third party.

Brad's Desktop

   |
Poor Nothing special Worth watching Pretty cool Awesome! 15 Ratings
Rate this article
Gold On Sale?
Written by Brad Zigler   
October 29, 2009 11:51 AM EST
Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 4.3%

When was the last time you caught sight of an item displayed in a retail store or a catalog and thought: "Gee, I'd buy that if it ever went on sale"?

Perhaps you've noticed the discounts now being taken on gold. On Wednesday, the lead December COMEX contract settled near $1,030 an ounce, more than $40 off its recent peak.

 

COMEX/NYMEX Spot Gold Settlements

COMEX/NYMEXSpotGoldSettlements

 

Is a 4% reduction enough to entice you to buy gold?

A lot of would-be buyers are waiting for bigger discounts. Those with a sense of history look at the December gold contract's track record and figure a pullback to the $1,009 level is needed to attract new buying interest. Those who feel the market's been more overwrought are eying a dip to $989 before sellers are washed out.

In either case, they're putting in limit orders just under these price levels to snag their anticipated bargains.

Now, the good thing about open limit orders is this: You get filled only if the contract is offered at or below your limit price. The order forces you to wait for your discounted sale price (don't you wish you could do this at Macy's?). No discount, no purchase.

That's also the bad thing about limit orders. If the market doesn't drop to your limit price, you're shut out. Well, shut out of an automatic purchase, that is. If you set $989 as your limit, only to see December gold dip to $1,009 before rebounding, your limit order remains unexecuted. If you wanted to be a gold futures buyer, you'd then have to consider canceling your limit order and purchasing futures at the market price.

There's no compensation offered for waiting around, hoping for further price concessions. Not directly through futures, anyway. There is a way to get paid, however, through the options market.

Suppose you'd sold short a December gold futures option with a $990 striking price. As you may know, the buyer of a put option obtains a right, but not an obligation, to sell (to "put") the contract's underlying asset to the put grantor at the exercise price. It's profitable for the put buyer to exercise the option when December futures fall below the $990 strike price. Until, and unless, futures decline below that threshold, the put seller has the advantage.

Why? Because she received the buyer's premium when the option was granted. Wednesday, the $990 December put settled at $5.70 an ounce, in essence offering sellers a $570 payment for a $990 limit order.

If the December contract never dips below the $990 strike by its expiration date, it will likely be abandoned by its owner, allowing the grantor to pocket the $570 premium as profit.

And the risk on the other side? Getting assigned a long futures contract if the market drops below $990. That was, however, pretty much the same risk anticipated by placing a regular limit order on December gold futures at the $989 retracement level.

Knowing this, the question for would-be gold buyers now becomes this: Do you want to get paid for bargain-shopping or not?

 



 

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Gold at Wikinvest
 
Subscribe to Our Weekly Newsletter 

Comments (1)

 Wednesday, 11 November 2009 22:28 EST - Posted by Khawaja Mushtaq Ahmad

 
Sir your artical of 29th oct has no value for today the 12th november. we expect from you a guidence for investing in buying gold at daily forecast basis in brief and to the point reguler articals comming on the net everyday.thanks



Post a Comment

Comment
(Limit 2,000
characters) 
*
Name: *
E-mail: *
Home page:

(optional)

Type in the displayed characters
Email follow-up comments to my e-mail address
 


Terms of Use
The HardAssetsInvestor.com message board and comment features are designed to facilitate thoughtful discussion of the biggest issues impacting commodity investors. All comments should be respectful. Insults and profanity are not permitted. The editor reserves the right to remove comments at his/her discretion.

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

  • A Flood Of Equity ETFs
    Associate Editor Lara Crigger evaluates the recent flood of equity-based commodity ETF filings.
    February 09, 2010
  • LEAPS Vs. Gold Stocks
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.2% Last week really tested the mettle of metal-owners.
    February 08, 2010
  • How’d YOUR Gold Stock Fare Yesterday?
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.6% PHEW! Thursday was quite a day! Spot gold dropped more than $48, or 4.4 percent, dragging gold stocks with it.
    February 05, 2010
  • Brian Nick: Time To Short Gold
    This Barclays Wealth investment strategist explains why now is the right time to short the yellow metal.
    February 05, 2010
  • Traders Seeing Red This Morning
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.6% There's nothing more bracing in the morning than glancing at the trading screen and seeing nothing but red numbers.
    February 04, 2010
 

Commodities Data

February 09, 2010 12:43 PM EST

  Loading data ...
 

Weekly Commodities Poll

Which do you think is more effective with commodities?

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

  • A Flood Of Equity ETFs
    Associate Editor Lara Crigger evaluates the recent flood of equity-based commodity ETF filings.
    February 09, 2010
  • LEAPS Vs. Gold Stocks
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.2% Last week really tested the mettle of metal-owners.
    February 08, 2010
  • How’d YOUR Gold Stock Fare Yesterday?
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.6% PHEW! Thursday was quite a day! Spot gold dropped more than $48, or 4.4 percent, dragging gold stocks with it.
    February 05, 2010
  • Brian Nick: Time To Short Gold
    This Barclays Wealth investment strategist explains why now is the right time to short the yellow metal.
    February 05, 2010
  • Traders Seeing Red This Morning
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.6% There's nothing more bracing in the morning than glancing at the trading screen and seeing nothing but red numbers.
    February 04, 2010
 

Seminal Papers »