We talk a lot here about the poverty of most coverage of the commodities space. This article from Bloomberg makes the point.

The headline reads: “Corn, Soybeans May Rise As U.S. Crops Fall Short Of Demand.”

The report covers a survey of 25 “traders, farm advisers and merchants” who were asked about the prospects for corn and soybean prices. In each case, 16 of the 25 correspondents were bullish on prices for the coming week. That’s a small sample, but I suppose if the farmers are savvy enough, it could indicate … something. After all, it is being covered on Bloomberg.

Um … maybe not. Bloomberg says that the survey has been conducted since 2004. So far, the corn predictions have been right 54 percent of the time, while soybean predictions have been right 57 percent of the time. I guess that’s better than 50-50, but, uhh, you’ll excuse us if we don’t bet the farm on those results.