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Overnight, crude oil traders shunned analysts' opinions, pinning their fortunes to a report by the U.S. American Petroleum Institute (API) that hinted of a drawdown in oil and gasoline stockpiles. Crude oil for June delivery rose as much as 60 cents a barrel to the $54.40 level in NYMEX electronic trading after slipping 63 cents in the day session. Oil prices climbed nearly 8% this week and are 21% higher for the year. Ahead of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly inventory report, API said oil stocks were likely to drop by 1 million barrels. API's gasoline forecast aimed at a 2.9-million-barrel drawdown. Last week, API's survey called the EIA crude inventory level with nearly spot-on accuracy, while oil analysts' guesses were widely off-target. The consensus from this week's Bloomberg News survey of analysts was a 2.5-million-barrel build in crude supplies. Elsewhere, a more conservative 2-million-barrel build was whispered. As it turned out, EIA data shows crude oil stocks actually increased by a modest 600,000 barrels. Analysts, who banked on gasoline stocks rising 500,000-to-650,000 barrels, were skunked by EIA's numbers showing a 200,000-barrel draw. Forecasts for distillate fuel inventories, including heating oil and diesel, were off-base as well. Supplies rose by 2.4 million barrels, well ahead of the 1-million-barrel build forecast by insiders. EIA said refineries operated at 85.3% of capacity, on par with year-ago levels, and up 2.6% from the previous week. Gasoline production stepped up to an average 8.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production was slightly higher last week, averaging 4.2 million barrels per day. Over the past week, traders acted as if supplies might be restrained across the board. Gasoline prices rose nearly 12% for the week, while heating oil gained almost 10%. Tuesday, unleaded gasoline jumped 6 cents, or nearly 4%, a gallon; heating oil shot up almost 6%, or 8 cents a gallon. Overall refining margins improved by 3.5 percentage points this week, bolstered most by the spike in gasoline prices. Gasoline's crack spread grew at twice the pace of heating oil's over the week. Crude Oil Vs. Futures-Implied Refining Margins 
Technically, crude oil is overbought but remains bullish in the short term. April's high at $55.85 is the next upside target for the June contract if a close above yesterday's $54.84 settlement can be managed. Closes below the 20-day moving average at $51.67 would indicate a short-term top is in. Some traders are looking skeptically at resurgent crude prices. Speculative interest in crude oil from funds and institutional traders has actually been waning since an early-year buying spree was spurred by sliding prices. Open interest, especially that held by large speculators, has been declining. The number of outstanding contracts is now about level with that seen in the bull market of February 2008. Crude oil prices peaked and began a precipitous slide one month later. Long Speculative Interest In Crude Oil
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