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Platinum
bulls have been gabbing about the prospects for a platinum
exchange-traded fund (ETF) for years. Given the popularity of physical
bullion ETFs like the $10 billion streetTRACKS Gold (NYSE: GLD) fund,
many figured it was only a matter of time before a fund company
launched a physical platinum ETF. The idea had everyone excited,
because the world’s platinum markets are very tight, and new investment
demand from an ETF could push prices up. A rumor in November 2006 that
Barclays Global Investors was about to file an ETF pushed prices up 27
percent in two trading sessions.
Soon, we’ll see if all that
excitement had a basis in reality ... at least in the UK. ETF
Securities, the commodity ETF leader in Europe, rolled out new physical
ETFs tied to platinum, palladium, silver, gold and a combined basket of
those four metals. The funds launched on the London Stock Exchange
(LSE) and are:
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Physical Platinum LSE code: PHPT
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ETFS Physical Palladium LSE code: PHPD
-
ETFS Physical Silver LSE code: PHAG
- ETFS Physical Gold LSE code: PHAU
Strangely,
this may be a case where the more popular metals make less popular
ETFs. The gold ETF will be the second gold bullion ETF to trade in
London, joining the Gold Bullion (GBS) fund from the World Gold
Council. The silver ETF is likely to be more popular, as it will be the
first silver bullion ETF on the market in London. But the real story
will certainly be the platinum ETF, given the high levels of
anticipation surrounding its launch. (The palladium ETF is likely to be
less popular, as there is plenty of palladium and prices have trailed
other metals.)
Will the new ETF drive prices higher? It’s way too
early to say. That depends in part on how much investor demand
materializes. But big players are watching: Anglo Platinum, which
accounts for 40% of all platinum production worldwide, said earlier
that it would not supply metal to a planned platinum ETF in
Switzerland. (The Swiss fund is expected to be launched by Zurich
Cantonal Bank in May.)
“We are opposed to the start up of an
platinum ETF and feel that other producers will be too," said Trevor
Raymond, senior investor relations manager at Angloplat, in the Metals Place article. “It takes physical metal away from metal demand ...which pushes up prices and limits offtake for jewelry."
The world’s second largest platinum miner, Impala Platinum, agreed:
“The
market is very tight indeed and this would draw more metal off the
physical market, sending prices skywards, said Bob Gilmour, investor
relations manager at Impala Platinum, in a miningMx article. “The producers do not want prices rocketing higher.”
It’s
not clear how or if Angoplat and Impala will work with the new
London-based fund, although if they disliked the Swiss ETF, they’re
unlike to smile on the British version.
How tight are supplies? No
one really knows. Producers currently sell very little metal into the
spot market, so things may look worse than they appear; as demand
rises, supply to that market may well increase. But the world has been
operating on a platinum deficit for the past 8 years, and only 7
million ounces of platinum are mined each year. With prices at
$1,300/ounce, that’s about $9 billion worth of new platinum worldwide.
It’s a stretch to imagine the ETF gathering $1 billion in assets this
year, but it’s possible; a success like that could certainly impact
prices.
It’s worth noting, of course, that there’s nothing wrong
with that. The ETF is just a tool to allow investors access to the
commodity; as long as they understand the accompanying risks, who’s to
say people shouldn’t access these markets.
Prices have been
fairly flat since ETF Securities announcement this morning: either
investors don’t believe that a UK fund will attract substantial assets,
or any growth has already been priced in. News of a US-based ETF would
likely have a more substantial impact.
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