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The battle
between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) over the rights to buy the Chicago Board
of Trade (CBOT) continues.
The story, in case you haven’t been
following, has all the drama of a Mexican soap. CME has been courting
the CBOT for some time, and the two agreed to merge late last year. As
March approached, all that remained was for CBOT shareholder to vote on
the deal – a move largely seen as a technicality. But ICE had different
ideas and submitted an unsolicited counter bid on March 15. The ICE bid
came in at $9.9 billion, far over the $8.8 billion offered by the CME,
and ground the two-Chicago merger process to a halt. (That premium has
since shrunk, as ICE’s share price has traded down.)
Many
expected the CME to increase its offer in response to ICE’s efforts,
but the CME has stood firm, insisting that it’s deal is simply
superior. Last Wednesday, CME CEO Craig Donohue compared ICE’s offer to
“a minnow swallowing a whale,” and said that the promised synergies and
cost savings were unrealistic. Despite the fact that ICE offered more
money than CME, Donohue told analysts that the deal was “significantly
inferior,” offering a “weaker currency” and poorer growth potential
going forward.
ICE, for its part, told reporters it was “better
at integrating acquisitions” than the CME, and that its offer was
substantially superior to the CME proposal.
The CBOT’s board will review both proposals.
If
the Atlanta-based ICE can pull off the deal, it would be quite a coup.
The upstart electronic exchange recently completed the acquisition of
the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) --- a move that has already
paid dividends, as the ICE has expanded significantly into the market
for “softs” commodities, pushing the exchange to record profits.
But
there are all sorts of cultural and economic issues at stake here that
might derail ICE’s efforts. For one, there’s that old Chicago pride:
some CBOT members have expressed concern about East Coast interests
moving into the Chicago market.
Far more important, however,
are the issues surrounding electronic vs. floor-based trading. The CBOT
is firmly a floor-based exchange, and whatever happens, the acquiring
company is going to move some of the trading volume onto electronic
markets. ICE’s heritage is in electronic trading, while the CME comes
from a floor-based background. Some CBOE members have expressed
concerns that ICE would move quickly to shutter the floor.
Beyond
that, the CME has tried to cast doubt on ICE’s ability to handle the
transaction, noting, for instance, that it would have to scale up its
clearing capacity (acquired in the NYMEX transaction) some 30 times in
order to handle the increased flow. According to recent reports, CBOT
members prefer the CME deal, and would accept the bid “in an instant”
if the CME would just offer a bit more money.
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ICE did not buy NYMEX, they bought the NY Board of Trade. NYMEX is still a public company. Some speculate that ICE and NYMEX will eventually merge.