The value of the goods and services cranked out in the United States - the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) - decreased at an annual rate of 0.5% in the third quarter of 2008. Preliminary estimates made last month called for a 0.3% downturn after real GDP increased 2.8% in the second quarter.

Consumers continue to wield a strong influence upon the U.S. economy as most of the weakness in GDP was traced to a downturn in personal consumption expenditure (PCE). In the third quarter, PCE tumbled 3.7% after rising 1.2% in the second quarter.

The new GDP stats fall in line with indicators released over the past two weeks (see "Consumers Buy Into Disinflation").

Industrial Slackening Ahead

On the industrial side, recession concerns are being been reflected in precious metals' prices. Because gold has limited industrial utility, price spikes in the yellow metal imply upticks in investment demand - often in response to economic worries. Silver is used in more manufacturing applications and is a better bellwether of industrial activity.

Gold's price has appreciated 4% since mid-August, while silver's declined 22%. So, economic worry index up, industrial expectations down.

The impact of the dollar can be factored out by measuring the metals' trends against crude oil. In terms of oil, gold has appreciated at twice the rate of silver since summer.

Precious Metals' Ratios

All this is throwing great doubt into my Christmas shopping. Just how much are those "five golden rings" gonna set me back this year? And will Tiffany take payment in crude?