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Buoyed by recent breaks in energy prices, the midmonth preliminary index bounced off a near three-decade low of 56.6 to 61.7, just shy of expectations. Prospects for a cheaper, or shall we say disinflationary, breakfast also have improved. Our monthly Breakfast Index tracks the middle ground between farm prices and grocery store checkout tabs by averaging recent price changes in a basket of eight commodities. Think of it as a counterpoint to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports. Yesterday, inflation, measured by July's CPI, climbed to a 17-year high at 5.6% per annum. From our perspective, though, toast-and-bacon bearishness resumed after the one-month reversal noted in last month's Breakfast Index ("Inflation: Tears In Your Coffee"). For the three-month period ending July 31, the index fell at a 3.7% annual clip, led by a double-digit decline in orange juice prices. Bacon (pork belly) prices continued to slip, contributing to the index's negative reading. This ought to bring down the cost of our future antemeridian repasts. July Breakfast Index Commodity | Contract Month | 30-Apr-08 Price | 31-Jul-08 Price | 3-Month Change (%) | Annualized Change (%) | Sugar #11 | October ‘08 | 12.70 ¢/lb | 13.93 ¢/lb | 9.7 | 43.1 | Butter, AA | September ‘08 | 148.50 ¢/lb | 155.75 ¢/lb | 4.9 | 20.3 | Cocoa | September ‘08 | $2,739/tonne | $2,858/tonne | 4.3 | 17.9 | Coffee | September ‘08 | 137.75 ¢/lb | 139.35 ¢/lb | 1.2 | 4.6 | Wheat | September ‘08 | $8.1550/bu | $7.8375/bu | -3.9 | -15.4 | Milk, Class III | September ‘08 | $19.35/cwt | $17.97/cwt | -7.1 | -24.9 | Pork Bellies (Bacon) | August ‘08 | 75.950 ¢/lb | 68.500 ¢/lb | -9.8 | -33.0 | Orange Juice | September ‘08 | 122.80 ¢/lb | 106.55 ¢/lb | -13.2 | -42.3 | Average | | | | -1.7 | -3.7 |
Ought, mind you; not will. We'll await the release of PPI figures on Tuesday, August 19, to get the government's take on the prospects and direction of any wholesale price pass-throughs. In the meantime, though, you can toast the penury that is pork farming with a sip of now-cheapening orange juice.
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