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Oil ETN Liquidity
Written by Brad Zigler   
December 18, 2008 1:29 PM EST
Real-time Inflation Indicator (per annum): 9.8%

Despite the economic slowdown, there are still some growth businesses. Take manufacturing, for instance. No, not auto or widget making. I'm talking about the manufacturing of exchange-traded portfolios.

You've no doubt noted, in particular, that the number of exchange-traded notes and funds tracking the Oil market has ballooned. Which inevitably leads to questions on their performance. Especially in these credit-addled times, questions abound about exchange-traded notes.

So here's the quick-and-dirty. There are three long and two short notes. The original long note was the iPath DJ-AIG Crude Oil Total Return ETN (NYSE Arca: OIL). It's been around a couple of years and is an obligation of the U.K.'s Barclays Bank plc.

Then, with near-perfect timing, the PowerShares suite of oil notes was launched this summer, just in time to catch the swoon in oil prices. These notes, offering single and double exposure - short and long - to the Oil sector of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index, are issued by the German bank's London branch.

Spot NYMEX oil has sunk 71.7% since the PowerShares notes' launch. Here's how the notes have responded:

 

OIL ETN Performance (7-Jul-08 through 17-Dec-08)

 

Note

 

Ticker

 

Return

 

Volatility

Current

Spread

Liquidity

Index

Average

Volume

iPath S&P/GSCI Crude

(1x Long)

 

OIL

 

-69.6%

 

62.2%

 

0.04%

 

569,000

 

617,000

PowerShares DB Crude

(1x Long)

 

OLO

 

-61.4%

 

55.8%

 

1.65%

 

5,700

 

13,700

PowerShares DB Crude

(2x Long)

 

DXO

 

-88.8%

 

133.7%

 

0.36%

 

461,400

 

3,893,000

PowerShares DB Crude

(1x Short)

 

SZO

 

155.2%

 

47.1%

 

3.25%

 

1,900

 

7,000

PowerShares DB Crude

(2x Short)

 

DTO

 

455.7%

 

88.1%

 

0.43%

 

62,400

 

553,700

 

 

From the table, you can easily see the short notes have fared well. The interesting numbers, however, have to do with liquidity.

The spread between the bid and offer is typically the best indicator of liquidity. A tighter spread denotes a more liquid market. Clearly, the more mature OIL portfolio has the advantage over the OLO portfolio.

The levered notes, too, are more actively traded and more liquid. This most likely reflects the utility of these securities as hedging alternatives to futures as well as outright portfolio positions.

Also notable is the liquidity index reading for each note. The index is a volume-weighted metric that tells you the size of a trade - all else held equal - needed to move the note market one percentage point. The higher the number of notes, the more liquid the market.

Of course, all things aren't always held equal. The notes' market makers must track the underlying index with their bids and offers to keep arbitrage opportunities from opening up. You don't have that in regular old stocks.

But if you're trading oil ETNs, you probably think plain old stocks are boring, right?

 

OIL ETN Performance

OIL ETN Performance

 

 

 

 

 



 

 
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Comments (8)

 Friday, 13 February 2009 14:42 EST - Posted by Leo Jones

 
How is it that DXO can be down 7% with crude up 10%

 Friday, 13 February 2009 14:59 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
Leo -

I'm not sure where you're getting these numbers.

When encountering an apparent pricing anomaly, the first thing to do is to make sure you're looking at contemporaneous prices. Look at the time stamp of the quotes. Are they the same? If you're looking at stale prices on one side or the other, especially in a volatile market, things are bound to look a little screwy.

The other culprit is contango. Though DXO is based upon an optimal return index, rolls are going have an effect upon returns.

What are you using as a crude quote? WTI spot? NYMEX Futures?

 Tuesday, 03 March 2009 20:35 EST - Posted by Joe L

 
when oil was trading at 42.12 DXO was priced at 2.97 a share. That was a month ago. Today, oil is trading at 41.47 and DXO is trading at 2.12. SO in the same period of one month a decrease in oil of 1.5% the DXO index has decreased by 40%. This 26.6x volatility against the oil index....not double. Either this is a short term timing thing due to contracts or DXO is a pretty good wealth destroyer due to poor trading bets. Can anyone please explain why it is great at tracking quickly on the way down but not on the way up? At 2.12 it is still tracking oil priced around $37-38!

 Wednesday, 04 March 2009 4:09 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
Joe -

Volatility in the table above is expressed as the annualized standard deviation of the daily price series, not as a multiple of an apparent price change.

DXO is based upon the Optimum Yield version of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index's oil subsector. The Optimum Yield version of the index is designed to downplay the effects of contango by applying flexible roll rules to pick a new futures contract when a contract expires.

"Downplay" doesn't necessarily mean "eliminate." If there's been a roll (and there has been) over your survey period, there's going to be a negative roll return that will exacerbate the spot commodity loss.

Bottom line? Pricing of the ETF won't necessarily be based upon the futures front month and you still got account for a negative roll return in a contango market.

DXO's mandate is to provide two times the monthly performance

 Tuesday, 10 March 2009 18:55 EST - Posted by TBilliodeaux

 
I have owned DXO when oil was $35 last month and oil has slowly increased to now $48. But DXO has dropped to $1.7 for oil at $35 and is now 2.5 for oil at $48.
Very Poor for a 2x ETF.

AT this rate, oil can go to $65 and DXO will only go to $3.5 or maybe 4.5 at best. Not what I expected.

 Tuesday, 10 March 2009 20:47 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
Three forces are at work here: index methodology, return compounding and contango. DXO's mandate, as noted above, is to provide twice the MONTHLY return of the of the INDEX, not the daily return of oil itself. You won't necessarily see the underlying index rise or fall at twice the rate of oil on any given day.

When the index methodology calls for a roll, a contango can eat into returns.

There's good news. The oil market's contango has waned considerably.

 Thursday, 12 March 2009 2:42 EST - Posted by Joe L

 
Hi Brad

I understand that DXO'S performance can not be judged on a day to day basis. But the facts are that DXO tracts immediately & INSTANTLY downwards in price - minute by minute -when oil falls.

However, when oil increases the price lags for the various reasons you have previously mentioned in other messages.

The KEY QUESTION is not why it lags on the way up (for the logical reasons you mention) but why it fails to lag on the way down.

I suspect those running this vehicle are not playing with the same deck of cards depending on which direction oil is going....and they are getting rich at the expense of investors as a result of it.

That is my fear.

Joe

 Thursday, 12 March 2009 3:11 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
Joe -

Take a look at the futures curve after settlement. You'll note that deferred deliveries may not move at the same speed as nearbys.

In a correcting contango, for example, the nearbys will decline more than the later deliveries. For example, on Wednesday (11 March), the nearby April contract finished $3.38 lower on the day while May dropped only $2.99. If the index methodology had mandated a roll into the April contract previously, rather than than the May futures, you'd see an index tracker take a bigger "hit" on a down day.

I wouldn't ascribe nefarious purpose to those "running" the instrument.



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