HAI

Unless otherwise indicated, the material below has not been prepared by Van Eck Associates Corporation or HardAssetsInvestor.com.
Neither assumes any liability for any content on a third party website or material prepared by a third party.

Brad's Desktop

   |
Poor Nothing special Worth watching Pretty cool Awesome! 31 Ratings
Rate this article
More On Hedging Gold Stocks
Written by Brad Zigler   
December 02, 2008 11:14 AM EST
Real-Time Inflation Indicator (per annum): 7.9%

Yesterday's column ("Gold Hedging: Up Close And Personal") prompted several readers to request hedge ratios for their gold stocks.

Without further ado, here are the numbers for the most-requested issues:

 

Gold Stock Hedge Ratios

Table: Gold Stock Hedge Ratios

 

"All fine and good," I hear you say. "But what's all this mean? How do I use this?

Here's the down-and-dirty on hedging gold's volatility.

The hedge ratio defines the size of a position in the PowerShares DB Double Gold Short ETN (NYSEArca: DZZ) relative to the stock. The ratio is determined by comparing the stock's recent volatility with that of the exchange-traded note.

Take Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY), for example. AUY's annualized volatility, or price variance, was clocked at 94.8% in 2008, while that of DZZ was 67.5%. To match the price volatility of AUY, 1.41 times as many dollars must be invested in a DZZ hedge (derived as 94.8% ÷ 67.5%).

Let's say you're now considering a $20,000 investment in AUY, but are concerned about current gold market volatility (for a look at the costs of recovery from a bout of volatility, see "Recovering Market Losses"). To buy the hedged version of AUY, you'd split up your $20,000 risk stake between the stock and the DZZ notes. A fully hedged stock position - that is, one in which gold volatility is neutralized - would devote 41%, or $8,200, of risk capital to AUY and 58%, or $11,800, to DZZ.

A little algebra helps us arrive at those values. The size of the AUY stake, let's call it x, is found by:

 

x + 1.41x = 100%

 

2..41x = 100%

 

x = 41%

 

The hedged position, i.e., 100% of your capital, is made up of the AUY stock, and a DZZ position that is, dollarwise, 1.41 times larger.

The hedge ratio can also be used to determine the hedged size of an existing position in AUY. If you're now considering price protection on a position entered previously, you might consider selling down the stake to 41% of present value and investing the proceeds in DZZ.

 

Yamana Gold (AUY) Hedged And Unhedged Since March 2008

Chart: Yamana Gold (AUY) Hedged And Unhedged Since March 2008

 

With perfect hindsight, a gold-hedged position in AUY would have lost 19.1% from March, while an unhedged position would have plummeted 73.1%. Applying the law of breakevens illustrated in the "Recovering Market Losses" article, the unhedged position requires AUY to make a 272% turnaround to reach breakeven. The hedged position, in contrast, needs only a 24% move to bounce back.

Keep in mind that DZZ only mitigates gold's price volatility. There are residual risks remaining in the hedged AUY position: equity market risk and management risk. Those are, in fact, the risks you WANT in a stock investment, right?

Now, a couple of cautions about hedging. First, hedging isn't rote. You hedge an existing position when you figure the cost is justified by market conditions and when they're lower - counting timing risks, taxes and transaction fees - than just selling out to rebuy later.

Second, the hedge results shown in the chart above are based upon "in-sample" data. That is, we're looking back at a period where the volatilities of the two instruments are known - not just forecast. From this point forward, our hedge ratio reflects our best guess at what future volatility may be, but it in no way guarantees us the results obtained from the in-sample case.

With that in mind, a hedge needs to be monitored and perhaps adjusted during its life to compensate for increased or decreased market volatility.

Third, a DZZ hedge requires capital. Cash money. You need to purchase the DZZ notes from your risk capital stake. That's money that isn't going to be put to work elsewhere in your portfolio while it's cushioning your gold stock. You'll have to decide if that's a worthy trade-off.

There are other ways to hedge a gold stock investment. We'll compare and contrast your hedging options in an upcoming feature.

In the meantime, you can post your comments or questions here or through This e-mail address is being protected from spambots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

 



 

 
Subscribe to Our Weekly Newsletter 

Comments (4)

 Tuesday, 02 December 2008 13:51 EST - Posted by Tao Jones

 
Excellent work, Mr. Zigler! I'm curious to know what the hedge ratios would be for the above stocks if a person were to employ GDX put options instead.

 Tuesday, 02 December 2008 14:01 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
If enough GDX puts were purchased to maintain "delta neutrality" against a portfolio of gold mining shares, you'd be hedging equity risk rather than gold risk per se.

Unlike a DZZ hedge, the insurance provided by GDX put purchases expires. A renewal requires new premium to be be expended.

Deciding which style of hedge to employ means first electing the risks to be managed and assessing the comparable costs.

We'll look more closely at this in our upcoming feature.

 Monday, 09 November 2009 9:11 EST - Posted by Jow Malanio

 
Brad,
I a new kid on the block with gold.
Read your article, the more I read the deeper in the hole I went.
Maybe I missed it as I read but is a high or low ratio show a stronger or weaker stock?

 Monday, 09 November 2009 9:48 EST - Posted by Brad ZIgler

 
Jow -

The hedge ratio doesn't measure the strength or weakness of a stock per se. It merely reflects the stock's volatility relative to the DZZ exchange-traded note.

For a hedge to be cost-effective, the hedging instrument must be as volatile or more volatile than the instrument being hedged. Otherwise, you'd need to lay on a LOT of shares (in the case of an ETN or ETF hedge) or contracts (when using futures or options) to cover the risk.

The example showed above illustrates how Yamana Gold's hedge ratio of 1.41 can be used to insulate an AUY holding against gold's volatility.

AUY's hedge ratio of 1.41 indicates that AUY's price volatility (up and down) has been 41 percent greater than that of DZZ's. More than 100 percent of the dollar value of the AUY stake would then need to be purchased to fully hedge the stock (ignoring the actual "passive" gold exposure as illustrated in the November 9, 2009 article "Holiday Shopping Tips For Gold Stocks").

Keep in mind that volatility is a double-edged sword. Measured by the standard deviation of returns, upside volatility looks just as risky as downside volatility.

There is one historic characteristic about markets to remember, though: volatility tends to INCREASE in downcycles; it DECREASES in bull moves.



Post a Comment

Comment
(Limit 2,000
characters) 
*
Name: *
E-mail: *
Home page:

(optional)

Type in the displayed characters
Email follow-up comments to my e-mail address
 


Terms of Use
The HardAssetsInvestor.com message board and comment features are designed to facilitate thoughtful discussion of the biggest issues impacting commodity investors. All comments should be respectful. Insults and profanity are not permitted. The editor reserves the right to remove comments at his/her discretion.

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

 

Commodities Data

March 13, 2010 05:26 PM EST

  Loading data ...
 

Weekly Commodities Poll

Is now a good time to buy gold?

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

 

Seminal Papers »