HardAssetsInvestor

Written by Brad Zigler  |

May 08, 2009

Don’t Bale On Cotton (Yet); Got Coffee?

Details

Fridays are good days to look back a little before scanning the week ahead.

Last week, we brought cotton's seasonal tendency to your attention. You were paying attention, weren't you?

Our "Cotton: A Not-So-Hard Asset" column highlighted the fiber's bullish habits in the first two weeks of May.

We're now one week into the merry month and everyone wants to know what cotton has done. Well, of course, you already know what cotton's done. Don't you?

When our column ran on April 28, July cotton started the day at 52.90 cents a pound. Thursday, the 50,000-pound contract finished at 58.88 cents. That 11% price move translates into a $2,990 gain. Margining a contract at $4,900 puts the return at 61%.

In our column, we mentioned the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Cotton ETN (NYSE Arca: BAL) as an alternative to futures. The note, then worth $29.92, closed at $33.11 Thursday, another 11% return (for a cash account customer at least). So, the security is tracking futures pretty well.

With only another week left in the trade, that'll be important.

ICE/NYBOT Cotton (July '08)

Speaking of seasonal trades, we highlighted July coffee's potential for an 8- or 9-cent move in May in "A (JO)lt Of Morning Coffee."

On April 23, July coffee sold for $1.177 a pound. Thursday, a pound of beans cost $1.246, a 6% hike. The iPath Dow Jones-AIG Coffee ETN (NYSE Arca: JO), the exchange-traded note that tracks coffee futures, contemporaneously rose to $37.53.

Coffee's now probing resistance at the $1.26 level, which ought to make next week very interesting indeed.

ICE/NYBOT Coffee (July '08)