HardAssetsInvestor

Written by Brad Zigler  |

April 23, 2009

A (JO)lt Of Morning Coffee

Details

Coffee got surprisingly expensive in New York yesterday. Well, it got pricey for some people anyway. July coffee pulled off a bullish reversal on the NYBOT/ICE Wednesday. After opening modestly lower at $1.1430 a pound, prices soared 4% before settling near session highs at $1.1775 on big volume.

That's a one-day hike of $1,275 in the price of a coffee contract.

This shapes up as the opening volley on the seasonal move we discussed last week ("The MOOve Toward Commodity Stocks"). If history repeats itself – that is, the history in 80% of the last 15 years – we ought to be seeing July coffee about another 8 or 9 cents higher still within a month.

"All fine and good," you may say, "but what about us nonfutures traders? What does this mean to us, if anything?"

Well, you can get a jolt of joe with the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Coffee ETN (NYSE Arca: JO), the exchange-traded note that tracks coffee futures.

For you, yesterday's move pushed the note's price up more than 3% to $35.74 on volume eight times higher than average. Yesterday's close also represented an upside crossover of JO's 20-day moving average.

iPath DJ-AIG Coffee ETN (JO)

After testing the $34 level four times, the note's broken above the 50% retracement level of January-March decline and is now aiming for the $37 level. A close above $36.35 today would provide further confirmation of a breakout.

The low level of NYBOT/ICE coffee stocks and growing concerns about frost damage to Brazilian crops are now, say coffee bulls, being manifested in buoyant coffee prices. Trend line seasonality seems to offer a further $7 upswell in JO's price, but supply apprehensions may provide further upside targets in the longer term.

That brings another meaning to the phrase "coffee to go," doesn't it?